2026 Market View: Developed Market Special Situations

RBC BlueBay Asset Management

Adam Phillips, Head of BlueBay Developed Market Special Situations outlines why the European special situations opportunity set is expanding as higher rates, excess leverage, margin pressure, and near-term maturities force more companies to pursue capital structure solutions.

What’s driving the opportunity set

• Liquidity is tightening: companies that bridged 2024 are increasingly running out of cash or facing near-term debt maturities.
• Mid-market stress is rising: limited bank financing is pushing more situations into event-driven, stressed, and distressed pathways.
• Restructuring toolkit is expanding: amended-and-extended transactions, full restructurings, and more aggressive liability management dynamics are appearing more frequently.

Where investors are focusing

RBC BlueBay notes particularly active areas across chemicals, paper & packaging, and auto parts. Geographically, opportunities are expected across the UK and France, with an ongoing emphasis on the German mid-market—viewed as early in the restructuring cycle with a multi-year runway.

Source: RBC BlueBay “2026 Market View – Developed Market Special Situations” video.